Automotive sector to register moderate growth over near to medium term: ICRA

The automotive industry has undergone significant changes over the past few years. There is advancement in technology and changes in consumer demand driving innovation and new business models. It’s important to understand how these trends will shape the industry and what the road ahead might look like.

The domestic automotive industry has been on a comeback trail over the past two years. The pace of revival across the various automotive segments has, however, been somewhat mixed. Aided by preference for personal mobility and stable semiconductor supplies, the passenger vehicle industry reached all-time high volumes in FY2023, and the demand sentiments are expected to remain healthy in the segment (6-9 percent YoY growth in FY2024).

Recent Growth

The commercial vehicle industry saw a robust growth in volumes in FY2023 (on a curtailed base); even as the growth is expected to remain at modest levels in FY2024 (2-4 percent YoY) on a healthy base, the overall industry volumes are expected to approach pre-pandemic highs. In contrast to these two segments, the two-wheeler industry has continued to struggle with industry volumes still below the pre-Covid peak levels, with the material rise in cost of ownership constraining demand. Even as the industry is expected to record a moderate growth in volumes in FY2024 (4-7 percent YoY), a sustained recovery in demand sentiments remains to be seen, amid concerns regarding the impact of an uneven monsoon precipitation on rural demand.

Commenting on the outlook for the automotive industry, Shamsher Dewan, Senior Vice President and Group Head – Corporate Ratings, ICRA, said: “We expect growth across the automotive industry segments to remain at moderate levels in FY2024. While the passenger vehicle volumes would continue to trend upwards, aided by favourable demand drivers, the two-wheeler industry is also expected to record moderate growth in volumes aided by a low base. Even as the demand sentiments in the commercial vehicle industry remain steady, the volume growth is expected to remain low on a healthy base. The impact of an uneven monsoon precipitation on rural demand across segments remains monitorable, even as the Government’s efforts on rural infrastructure development, crop procurements etc. remain positive”.

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ICRA has a forecast of a CAGR of ~6-9 percent across the automotive segments over the medium to long term. Factors such as rising per capita, demographic profile are expected to help grow the industry demand at a steady pace.

Government Initiatives

Spurred by Government support in the form of subsidies (under the FAME-II policy), enhanced awareness, and increasing product launches, the electric vehicle (EV) segment has seen a material upturn in prospects over the past two years. Given the healthy subsidies available in the electric two-wheeler it accounted for approximately 85-90 percent of the total EV sales. Even as hybrids are viewed as an intermediate step towards acceptance of EVs in the passenger vehicle segment. While a reduction in subsidy benefits under the FAME II policy for e-2ws from June 2023 has slowed down the pace of adoption to an extent. The OEMs remain focused on value engineering initiatives to develop more affordable products.

The OEMs are expected to incur significant investments in the development of ground-up EV platforms and enhance manufacturing capacities. The enhanced investment towards product development is expected to moderate the return indicators. Competitive manufacturing capabilities and ongoing efforts by the OEMs to enhance the distribution network bode well for export prospects. Over the near term, the domestic industry volumes are expected to continue to drive growth. The export prospects remaining weak amid a shortage of dollar availability in some key markets and inflationary pressures.

Key factors driving moderate growth in the automotive sector

• –Rising disposable incomes: In emerging markets, such as India and China, disposable incomes are rising rapidly. This is leading to a growing demand for vehicles. For example, the two-wheeler market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8-10% in the next five years.
• –Increasing urbanization: The global population is becoming increasingly urbanized. This is leading to a growing demand for personal transportation. For example, in China, the number of urban residents is expected to reach 1 billion by 2035. This will create a huge demand for vehicles.
• –Rising fuel efficiency standards: Governments around the world are implementing increasingly stringent fuel efficiency standards. This is driving the development of more fuel-efficient vehicles.
• –Growing adoption of electric vehicles: Electric vehicles are becoming increasingly popular due to their environmental benefits and lower operating costs. For example, in Norway, electric vehicles accounted for over 50% of new car sales in 2022.

Overall, the automotive sector is expected to register moderate growth in the near to medium term. This growth will be driven by a number of factors. It includes rising disposable incomes, increasing urbanization, rising fuel efficiency standards, and growing adoption of electric vehicles.